Opening 4 new stations shortly, own part of own of them! Great residual returns!

  

Flagged Hotel Investment - $500k

  

Wanted active and/or passive investors

  

Invest in the Future. Security Token Offering Platform using Blockchain.

  

PRIME ITS JUST THE BEST SUGAR LESS DRINK

  

Film studio expansion

  

Canadian Real Estate Venture

  

Late Stage Applicant Cannabis Cultivation and Processing, British Columbia

  

Affordable Sea Container Homes

  

Passive Homes built at 50% of cost that sell for 20% more then any house. Done in 14 days on site

  

Real Estate - 26 Unit Development in a high demand market

  

Large grain farm in Montana - 35,000 acres

  

Innovative Google Cloud Office Furniture Catalogs for Architects & Interior Designers

  

Bison Zero to a Milllion

  

Seeking Loan - (Security - GSA on all Company’s assets)

  

The First Dedicated Esports Arena In Canada, Pending LOI

  

Buying small cap businesses (2-15m) rollup

  

Auxilia Seed Funding

  

Tire investment opportunity partnership

  

New Mobile App for Planning Events

  

Secured Bond against assets and trade receivables

  

Manufacturing Investment Opportunity

  

100k for 25% of company

  

Residential Development

  

Retired horses for veterans and first responders with PTSD

  

Real Estate - Quick Return

  

AHI Opportunities Fund - Agritech Real Estate

  

Equity Ownership with Design Build Company

  

Money Service Business Investment Opportunity

  

Seeking Canadian Partnership for US ICW NC Hunt/fish retreat with seafood distribution

  

Private Power Generation, Transmission and Distribution of Natural Gas

  

Shares for sale in a Goldmine Development in Arizona

  

Real Estate

  

Integrated Facility Operations & Supply model in market tested (7yr) and ready for national launch.

  

Short term real estate investment with guaranteed return

  

Langley BC Cannabis - Summer 2019 Investment Proposal

  

Own part of renewable energy Anaerobic Digester in Canada with Excellent returns

  

Mining Expansion & Acquisition Opportunity

  

Short Term Real Estate Opportunity - Over 20 Years of Experience

  

Capital required to keep up with growth demands

  

 

Canadian Investment Network


Recent Blogs


Pitching Help Desk


Testimonials

"I made several great connections through your network. In fact, I was able to over fund my project. I also listed with another network that cost 3X as much and the leads were nowhere near as solid as the investors I met through this network. I will definitely only be using this network in the future. "
Jason A.

 BLOG >> Recent

A Lobster Fishing Revenue Model [Business Models
Posted on July 8, 2013 @ 09:51:00 AM by Paul Meagher

In my last blog on the topic of revenue modelling (using a lobster fishing season as an example), I talked about categorical price distributions and how they would be a better representation of how lobster prices vary than using a normal distribution to model prices.

I thought I would finish of the exercise in modelling lobster fishing revenue by presented the completed lobster fishing revenue model. There are two main differences between this version of the script and my last lobster fishing revenue script.

  1. This version represents the variation in prices using a categorical probability distribution rather than a normal distribution. I discussed how a categorical probability distribution works and why it is appropriate in my last blog.
  2. I simplified the looping structure for each catch. I didn't realize that e0=1. I thought the natural exponent e raised to the power of 0 was 0 so did some unnecessary coding for the first season's catch. It is good to know that e0=1 (see Exponential Functions at Wikipedia) as it help to understand how the exponential decay function works when $c = 0 (i.e., first catch of the season).

So without further ado here is the completed lobster fishing revenue model implemented as a PHP program:

<?php

/**
* @script: lobster_revenue_final.php
* @author: Paul Meagher
* @modified: July 08/2013
* @about: A model of lobster fishing revenue. 
**/

// The probability distributions library sits 
// in the PDL folder at the same level as the 
// folder the script is run from.
//
// @see https://github.com/mrdealflow/PDL

require_once '../PDL/NormalDistribution.php';
require_once 
'../PDL/CategoricalDistribution.php';


/*** PARAMETER SETTINGS FOR REVENUE MODEL - START ***/

// Set the number of catches per season.

$num_catches 40;

// Rate at which catch sizes decay (and corresponding standard deviation).

$k  = -0.03087;

// Initial catch size we will sample from (1000 lbs).

$N0 1000

// Initial catch size standard deviation we will sample from (250 lbs).

$S0 250;

// Specify categorical distribution for lobster prices (price and its probability).

$price_distribution = array('3.25'=>0.4'3.50'=>0.3'3.75'=>0.2'4.00'=>0.1); 

/*** PARAMETER SETTINGS FOR REVENUE MODEL - END ***/

// Model prices using a categorical distribution with price points and their probabilities.

$lobster_price_distribution  = new CategoricalDistribution($price_distribution);

?>
<table border='1'>
  <thead>
  <tr>
    <th>Catch #</th>
    <th>Price/LB</th>
    <th>Weight(LB)</th>
    <th>Revenue</th>
  </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
  <?php
  
for ($c=0$c<$num_catches$c++) {
    
    
// Note: exp(0) = 1
    
    // Reduce the mean catch size after the first catch
    // according to exponential decay function.
    
$N $N0 exp($k $c);

    
// Reduce the standard deviation of catch size after the 
    // first catch according to exponential decay function.
    
$S $S0 exp($k $c);  
    
    
// Specify new catch size distribution for this trip.
    
$lobster_catch_distribution  = new NormalDistribution($N$S);
    
    
// Call random number generator RNG to sample values from 
    // catch size and catch price distribution.
    
$lobster_catch[$c]   = round($lobster_catch_distribution->RNG());
    
$lobster_price[$c]   = sprintf("%01.2f",$lobster_price_distribution->RNG());
    
$lobster_revenue[$c] = sprintf("%01.2f",$lobster_catch[$c] * $lobster_price[$c]);  
    
?>
    <tr>
      <td align='center'><?php echo ($c+1?></td>
      <td align='center'>$<?php echo $lobster_price[$c?></td>
      <td align='center'><?php echo $lobster_catch[$c?></td>
      <td align='center'>$<?php echo $lobster_revenue[$c?></td>
    </tr>            
    <?php
  
}
  
?>
  <tr>
    <td>&nbsp;</td>
    <th>Totals</th>
    <td align='center'><?php echo array_sum($lobster_catch?></td>    
    <td align='center'>$<?php echo array_sum($lobster_revenue?></td>
  </tbody>
</table>

Using a categorical distribution to model prices instead of a normal distribution does not appear to make a big difference in total seasonal revenue numbers produced by the model (around 80k) so we probably could have gotten away with using a normal distribution to model prices; but prices were not in fact distributed in this manner and I preferred the model to be truer to the pricing facts.

In my next blog I will take this revenue model and re-run it many times in order to better understand the behavior of the model and come up with some estimates of total expected revenue and total expected catch for a lobster fishing season.

Addendum

A week ago I had the pleasure of having a feed of lobster at a family event that my father-in-law held. He has a fishing boat. His two sons use it to fish lobsters, crabs, and tuna. They held aside some lobster for the event. Below is the cooked "feed of lobster" we had for the event.

I am not that proficient in shelling a lobster so asked for some tutoring. My sister-in-law Amanda demonstrated what is possibly the fastest and most efficient method possible for extracting meat from the tail of the lobster. The culinary schools do not even appear to teach this method. Amanda must have perfected this technique from having to shell so many lobsters for the menu at her new Backroads Bistro business. This is a 5 second video so you may have to rewatch to get how to do it.

Permalink 

 Archive 
 

Archive


 November 2019 [1]
 October 2019 [2]
 September 2019 [1]
 July 2019 [1]
 June 2019 [2]
 May 2019 [2]
 April 2019 [5]
 March 2019 [4]
 February 2019 [3]
 January 2019 [3]
 December 2018 [4]
 November 2018 [2]
 September 2018 [2]
 August 2018 [1]
 July 2018 [1]
 June 2018 [1]
 May 2018 [5]
 April 2018 [4]
 March 2018 [2]
 February 2018 [4]
 January 2018 [4]
 December 2017 [2]
 November 2017 [6]
 October 2017 [6]
 September 2017 [6]
 August 2017 [2]
 July 2017 [2]
 June 2017 [5]
 May 2017 [7]
 April 2017 [6]
 March 2017 [8]
 February 2017 [7]
 January 2017 [9]
 December 2016 [7]
 November 2016 [7]
 October 2016 [5]
 September 2016 [5]
 August 2016 [4]
 July 2016 [6]
 June 2016 [5]
 May 2016 [10]
 April 2016 [12]
 March 2016 [10]
 February 2016 [11]
 January 2016 [12]
 December 2015 [6]
 November 2015 [8]
 October 2015 [12]
 September 2015 [10]
 August 2015 [14]
 July 2015 [9]
 June 2015 [9]
 May 2015 [10]
 April 2015 [10]
 March 2015 [9]
 February 2015 [8]
 January 2015 [5]
 December 2014 [11]
 November 2014 [10]
 October 2014 [10]
 September 2014 [8]
 August 2014 [7]
 July 2014 [6]
 June 2014 [7]
 May 2014 [6]
 April 2014 [3]
 March 2014 [8]
 February 2014 [6]
 January 2014 [5]
 December 2013 [5]
 November 2013 [3]
 October 2013 [4]
 September 2013 [11]
 August 2013 [4]
 July 2013 [8]
 June 2013 [10]
 May 2013 [14]
 April 2013 [12]
 March 2013 [11]
 February 2013 [19]
 January 2013 [20]
 December 2012 [5]
 November 2012 [1]
 October 2012 [3]
 September 2012 [1]
 August 2012 [1]
 July 2012 [1]
 June 2012 [2]


Categories


 Agriculture [71]
 Bayesian Inference [14]
 Books [15]
 Business Models [24]
 Causal Inference [2]
 Creativity [7]
 Decision Making [15]
 Decision Trees [8]
 Design [36]
 Eco-Green [4]
 Economics [12]
 Education [10]
 Energy [0]
 Entrepreneurship [61]
 Events [2]
 Farming [20]
 Finance [25]
 Future [15]
 Growth [18]
 Investing [24]
 Lean Startup [10]
 Leisure [5]
 Lens Model [9]
 Making [1]
 Management [9]
 Motivation [3]
 Nature [22]
 Patents & Trademarks [1]
 Permaculture [34]
 Psychology [1]
 Real Estate [2]
 Robots [1]
 Selling [11]
 Site News [15]
 Startups [12]
 Statistics [3]
 Systems Thinking [3]
 Trends [7]
 Useful Links [3]
 Valuation [1]
 Venture Capital [5]
 Video [2]
 Writing [2]