Posted on March 1, 2021 @ 08:44:00 AM by Paul Meagher
The pandemic has been going on for so long that it is getting hard to imagine that it might soon come to an end and that we should be starting to prepare for a post pandemic world. It might even come sooner than we think if the vaccines help to create herd immunity quicker than anticipated.
I am a fan of Dr John Campbell's Youtube channel where, since the pandemic began, he has been discussing empirical data and scientific studies on various aspects of the pandemic. Israel is ahead of most countries in administering vaccines to its population and there is now a good large scale Israeli study published (+1 million sample) demonstrating the effectiveness of the vaccine in stopping the spread of Covid-19, hospitalizations and death. The results of the Pfizer vaccine rollout in Israel is very impressive and a cause for hope.
It is hard for startups and small businesses to plan when the outlook is bleak and uncertain. In this situation you may find yourself looking at the world through a scarcity lens rather than the abundance lens that is more typical of entrepreneurial thinking. What happens when the world starts getting back to normal where we can again gather in larger groups, socialize freely, travel without restrictions and do other things that we took for granted before? Will there be pent up demand?
It is still tricky to estimate when the economy will "reopen" but we should be starting to imagine it and what possibilities might open up when it does. Take, for example, a wedding venue business that I have been thinking about offering at our farm property. Last year was not a good year for holding weddings and many people put it off. In colder climates, that means putting it off until this summer. Will there be pent up demand for wedding venues this year? Will they generally be smaller due to international travel restrictions? Do I start advertising now and what should my marketing message be?
What about restaurants and bar venues? Increased demand here might be a result not only of people wanting to publicly socialize again, but also due to the pandemic forcing the closure of competing bars and restaurants leaving fewer venues to satisfy demand.
Is it a time to privately invest to get ready for demand? Valuations on many small businesses are lower than they were pre-pandemic and many small business owners are fed up and wanting to exit the business at lower valuation levels. How long will these valuations last if it appears that the economy might start to reopen and that demand might start to return or exceed pre-pandemic levels?
Just like many entrepreneurs and investors had to adapt to the pandemic world, forward looking entrepreneurs and investors are already looking to adapt and scout out opportunities in the post-pandemic world.
It may be important to monitor places like Israel and Scotland that will be leading the pack in terms of reopening their economies as a result their vaccines efforts to see what the trends and opportunities might be in a post-pandemic world.
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